Us economic outlook 2016 pdf alaska

General contractors of alaska agc, proudly offer the 14th consecutive alaska construction spending forecast as a guideline to construction activity and its effect on the 49th state. Investments in securities are not insured, protected or guaranteed and may result in loss of income andor principal. This is my first time in alaska and i am looking forward to learning a lot about the local economy during my visit here. The juneau economic development council is pleased to present the 2014 edition of the juneau and southeast alaska economic indicators and outlook report. Trends is funded by the employment and training services division of the alaska department of labor and workforce development and is published by the. Compared to its peak in 4th quarter 2007, gdp is only about 12 percent higher while the number of employed is only 3. There is a slight positive bias for the eurozone and especially china, where we expect 6. United states economy overview economic overview of the united states despite facing challenges at the domestic level along with a rapidly transforming global landscape, the u. Fiscal years 2007 to 2016 a the budgetary effects of hurricane relief 107 b changes to the budget outlook since august 2005 111 c how changes in economic assumptions can affect budget projections 119 d the treatment of federal receipts and expenditures in the national income and product accounts 125. Alaska s economy rests on a socalled threelegged stool. Northrim bank launched the alaskanomics blog to provide news, analysis and commentary on alaska s economy and economic statistics.

Department of commerce, us office of travel and tourism industries. There is nothing the state government can do that will rescue alaska from the. Alaska economic trends is a monthly publicaon meant to objecvely inform the public about a variety of. Alaska economic trends is a monthly magazine that covers a broad range of economic issues. Force reductions at joint base elmendorfrichardson jber is the latest unwelcome news among events shaping local economic trends over the next few years. Unit 01 low and fragile global growth, dependent on developments in china 02 despite a rocky start to 2016, underlying fundamentals are indicative of moderate economic growth in the u. This would be the first year of job losses since 2009, when alaska felt the wake from the national recession. The fomc sees the risks to the economic outlook as roughly balanced. The 2009 spillover recession from the great recession that hit the u. Economic trends alaska department of labor state of alaska. Presentation to the anchorage economic development.

Key points the global economic outlook in 2016 is largely unchanged. Economic gains enough to further tighten labor market august 2016. Economist robert reich says alaskas steady growth may. Alaska s economy faces significant headwinds in 2016, largely due to sustained low oil prices. Advance estimate of inflation adjusted gdp growth in the first quarter of 2017 was only 0. United states economic outlook 2nd quarter 2017 4 2. His core priorities during the presidential campaign focused on protectionism, reducing taxes, and deregulation. Alaska economic trends are searchable from 1978 to the present using the trends search page. Visit our website to download an electronic version and. The economic recovery in advanced markets, while steady, is still fragile. Alaska economic contents i alaska economic trerlds is a monthly publication dealing with avariety ofeconomic related issues in the state.

The cpa outlook index cpaoi is a broadbased indicator of the strength of u. Sifma economic advisory rountable mid year 2016 economic outlook survey do you expect the fomc raise the fed funds target rate range at june 2016 meeting. Forecasts for anchorage, the fairbanks area, and southeast. Noted economist robert reich discussed the global and national context for alaska s economy in a keynote address at aedcs 25thanniversary luncheon on wednesday. The alaska economy experiences less economic impact from the loss of a job held by a nonresident than a job held by an alaskan, who. Global growth consolidates but risks remain on balance, growth forecasts for 201718 are largely unchanged. Fourth quarter 2016 market outlook first midwest bancorp. We forecast that trend will continue this year, but at a slower rate of 0. Economic outlook for 2016 berkshire money management. Alaska economy at a glance bureau of labor statistics. Consumer spending will increase at a moderate pace, sustained by gains in employment, real incomes, and household net worth. Unemployment is forecast to continue at the natural rate.

An outlook survey to members of chambers and other. Guettabi provides economic outlook at alaska economic summits. But the decline in inflation last year, as labor market conditions improved significantly, was a bit of a surprise. Us economic growth will strengthen us consumers and businesses enter 2017 with rising optimism. Airline monitor, oxford economics, world economic outlook, airbusboeingembraer market outlooks, oecd, icf analysis 2016 data. Us economic outlook the implications of a trump presidency. Reports on the global economy often focus on the negative, pointing out potentially troubling items, including chinas growth slowdown, greeces debt, the euros future. Us economic outlook september 2016 key indicators percent change, annual rate 16q1 16q2 16q3 16q4 17q1 industrial production 1. As of january 3rd, the gdpnow model forecast for real gdp growth, 4th quarter 2016 gdp is expected to be 2. Presentation to the anchorage economic development corporation anchorage, alaska by john c. Each year we compile economic information that private and public organizations, local, state and federal agencies, lawmakers. Past growth and future projections for alaskas industry sectors.

This is 5,000 more jobs than all the jobs lost during the recession. Alaska economic trends is funded by the alaska employment service and published by the alaska department of labor, research and analysis section, p. United states economic outlook 3rd quarter 2017 6 in europe, economic growth has continued to pick up momentum in the first half of the year, with slightly better than expected gdp performance, standing above 2% in annualized terms. Economic forecasts from the worlds leading economists. Business fixed investment will benefit from an improving tax and. Economy the current economic recovery now into its 8thyear has been the slowest recovery in postwar history. Fiscal policy remains restrictive, but less severe than in 2014. Trends is funded by the employment and training services division of the alaska department of labor and workforce development. Us outlook ihs us economic outlook how long will the ride last. Housing construction will steadily recover in response to rising employment, easing credit, and a higher household formation rate. With contributions from economists, business leaders, policy makers and everyday alaskans, alaskanomics aims to engage readers in an ongoing conversation about our economy, now and in the future. Forecasts for both the eurozone and us have been revised down since the last outlook. The most critical indicator is the gross domestic product, which measures the nations production output.

Fairbanks its no secret alaska s economic outlook is icy. Real federal govt spending declines in 2015 and 2016. Despite the slower population growth recent state projections indicate fnsb should. The state is forecast to lose about 2,500 jobs in 2016, a 0.

Activity in services, which until now had benefited from the recovery of private consumption in the major developed economies, is also starting to. Sifma economic advisory rountable mid year 2016 economic outlook survey. Atradius economic researcheconomic outlook may 2016. Certain indicators temper positive economic outlook september 2016. Strong growth and higher inflation mark end of 2016 december 2016. Atradius economic researcheconomic outlook november. Under a special arrangement with the institute of social and economic research iser at the university of alaska anchorage. This highly collaborative effort was designed to help promote economic growth by gathering feedback on how to cultivate great places to grow a business. The 2016 economic outlook health check involves input from 2,158 respondents through 154 associations throughout the us and canada. In june 2016, employment was down about 2,500 jobs compared to june 2015, according to preliminary alaska department of labor and workforce development adolwd estimates. While job growth was solid in 2015, growth started tapering late in the year and by early 2016, the expected decline in employment materialized. Northern and eastern regions lagging rest of united states 19 us outlook december 2014 south atlantic east north central pacific midatlantic. Outlook largely unchanged despite disappointing jobs report june 2016. Alaskas economic landscape and outlook seattle metropolitan chamber of commerce january 15th, 2016 alaska department of labor and workforce development, research section, neal.

In 2016, the eurozone is forecast to expand only 1. January 2017 trends alaska department of labor and. This is the major risk to the domestic economic outlook in 2018 selective tariffs, nafta and key trading partners trump administration 1550% tariffs on solar, washing machine. Moreover, the improvement has been broadbased, across both demand components and countries. Update process is scheduled to occur between may 2015 and january 2016.

Fnsb comprehensive economic development strategy ceds. Online versions are available from 1978 to present. Trends is a monthly publication with articles on alaska s economy, population, cost of living, occupations, industries, and more. Unemployment is forecast to continue below the natural rate. We expect the reduction in manufacturing inventories that we saw in the first half of 2016 to ease in h2, reducing or eliminating the drag from overall inventory accumulation. The ceds development process began in september 2016, and ran through april 2017. Southeast alaska 2020 economic plan southeast conference. In its january 2016 forecast aedc predicted anchorage would lose about 1,600 jobs as the effect of declining.

Economy continues to improve the us economy continues to improve due to business investment, consumer confidence, employment and real wages. Williams, president and ceo, federal reserve bank of san francisco for delivery on august 18, 2016. Alaska economic trends, january 2020 alaska department of labor. Estimates for business capital investment for fullyear 2016 remained the same as mid year, forecasting a 0. The gdp growth rate is expected to fall below the 2% and 3% ideal range. The gdp growth rate is expected to remain between the 2% to 3% ideal range. Economic growth picking up in the second half november 2016.

A handful of industries likely to spur slight growth this year. Click here to sign up for a free electronic subscription. Anchorages population declined by just under 1,500 residents in 2015, to end the year at 298,900, a drop of approximately 0. Nevertheless, the fiscal year fy 2016 state capital budget is half a billion dollars below fy 2015 and statewide agency operations spending will dip 4 percent. Consumer spending is supported by solid gains in employment, real disposable income, and housing asset values. Us northeast program snapshot the 2016 economic outlook health check involves input from 2,158 respondents through 154 associations throughout the us and canada. The 2018 industry employment forecast for alaska, anchorage, fairbanks, and southeast alaska was published in the january 2018 issue of alaska economic trends. Williams, president and ceo, federal reserve bank of san francisco for delivery on august 18, 2016 longview. In 2017, growth is forecast to accelerate slightly to 2.